Trader Definition – “Death” & “Golden” Cross
Definition of ‘Death Cross’
A crossover resulting from a security’s long-term moving average breaking above its short-term moving average or support level.
Investopedia explains ‘Death Cross’
As long-term indicators carry more weight, this trend indicates a bear market on the horizon and is reinforced by high trading volumes. Additionally, the long-term moving average becomes the new resistance level in the rising market.
Definition of ‘Golden Cross’
A crossover involving a security’s short-term moving average (such as 15-day moving average) breaking above its long-term moving average (such as 50-day moving average) or resistance level.
Investopedia explains ‘Golden Cross’
As long-term indicators carry more weight, the Golden Cross indicates a bull market on the horizon and is reinforced by high trading volumes. Additionally, the long-term moving average becomes the new support level in the rising market.
Technicians might see this cross as a sign that the market has turned in favor of the stock.
Trader Definitions – ‘Falling Three Methods’
A bearish candlestick pattern that is used to predict the continuation of the current downtrend. This pattern is formed when the candlesticks meet the following characteristics:
1. The first candle in the pattern is a long red candlestick within a defined downtrend.
2. A series of ascending small-bodied candlesticks that trade within the range of the first candlestick.
3. A long red candlestick creates a new low, which suggests that the sellers are back in control of the direction.
Investopedia explains ‘Falling Three Methods’
The series of small-bodied candlesticks are regarded as a period of consolidation before the downtrend is able to continue. This pattern is important, because it shows traders that buyers still do not have enough conviction to reverse the trend and it is used by some active traders as a signal to add to their short positions.
Money Management – Martingale Probability Theory (Anti-Martingale) & Video
Martingale Probability Theory
Martingale probability began as a popular betting theory in 18th century France. The basic premise of the theory was simple enough: In a game of coin flips that pays 2:1 if the coin comes up heads, but takes the bet money if the coin comes up tails, you should bet double on every loss so that you would automatically win back any losses.
Problems with the Initial Model
Clearly, the game assumes that the player has no limit on financial resources or time. In a practical setting, this game does not work, because as the player bets on each subsequent iteration, he exponentially reach poverty. Although the game does break even over a long enough time line, there is no way to be certain that this will happen quickly enough for the player to adequately recover his losses. However, the idea led to several other theories.
Proof Against Betting Theories
Paul Peiree Levy did much of the work toward proving that successful betting theories were impossible to create. The idea was to illustrate that betting games, in general, are fools’ games. There is no way to create a theory that will allow the player to win a majority of the time. Before his work in fields like Martingale Probability, it was not commonly accepted that gambling was essentially stacked against the player.
Exponential Nature of Losses
- The main interest that mathematicians still have in Martingale Probability is the exponential rate of loss. The idea that can be inferred from the equations that define a Martingale set is that the expected value of the next number in a set of observations can be assumed to be equal to the last observation in the set. In other words, in a fair game, a gambler can assume his losses will be roughly between plus or minus the square root of the number of steps.
Polya’s Urn Model
- George Polya came up with an example to explain this concept using a jar (or urn) containing red and blue marbles. The urn randomly and unbiasedly expels a marble of a given color. That marble is put back into the jar with another marble of the same color, which essentially has the same mathematical model as doubling down the gambler’s bet on any given game. The problem is that it has the false illusion of affecting the outcome.
Trader Quote # 21
The Great Sun Tzu 5 Steps for War (Trading)
Trading Sun Tzu -“Military Method, we have,
2. Estimation of Quantity
4. Balancing of Chances;
5. Victory.” Sun Tzu
==== Definitely One of the Best Quotes for Trading – Simple & Beautiful! . For those that don’t have a trading plan, look no further! Lolz 🙂 . This is a 5 Step Process for Trading and more!
1. Measurement – I would see it as to complete beforehand all your technical & fundamental analysis in the Monthly, Weekly , Daily, 4 hrs, 1hrs ,30 min Time-frames to see the big picture , the “conditions of the battlefield”.
2. Estimation of Quantity – How many Troops will you deploy , where & why? Great money management is the key here. Money management as a per troop basis is a great way to “see” and “feel” your risk. This must be thought before the battle begins and used when the battle is fought!
3.Calculation – For me it is the entry / exit strategy to implement (setups). When is the most favorable moment to deploy your troops, if you know what I mean?
4. Balance of chances – Sounds similar but different in my eyes, I would ask myself if the probabilities are on my side. This is where I would do a Probability chart study analysis.
5. Victory – Love this One! Because you would think Victory is translated to Profit?!. To me Victory is to fully following your System Plan even if it results in a pre-calculated loss! Enjoy. Dimitri Feria ====
What do you think? What do this quote mean for you? Any comment or experiences you would like to share?
Setups 2 Trade – “Adam & Eve”
Double tops and double bottoms come in four varieties (the links take you to the bottoms): Adam & Adam,Adam & Eve, Eve & Eve, and Eve & Adam. Each peak or valley is either wide or narrow. Wide ones are called Eve and narrow ones are called Adam.
But what is wide and what is narrow?
Answering that can be confusing for both novices and experts alike. Sometimes a chart pattern can be difficult to assess. However, I’ve created some identification rules.
Let’s discuss Eve bottoms and I show one in the chart of Lexmark (LXK) on the daily scale. Eve is wide, rounding appearing. If it has downward spikes, they are numerous and often short. Notice how the top of the Eve bottom is very wide. I denote that with a green line between points B andC.
Compare the width of BC with AB. Notice that the Eve bottom is much wider at its top than is the Adam top. That is one of the key ways of telling an Adam bottom or top from an Eve.
Adam peaks or valleys are narrow and remain slender as you move up (bottoms) or down (tops) the pattern. Often Adam will be composed of one long spike. Recall that Eve can have spikes, too, but they will be numerous and often short. Adam will have one or two and be quite long. The Adam bottom pictured in the chart shows such a long spike.
The chart shows, of course, an Adam & Eve double bottom. Imagine the same picture flipped upside down. The Adam and Eve peaks would retain the same characteristics. Eve peaks are wide and rounded appearing but Adam peaks are slender and pointed.
Adam and Eve Identification
To make identification easier, ask yourself if the two peaks or valleys look the same or different. If they are the same, then you are dealing with Adam & Adam or Eve & Eve. If one is wide and the other is narrow, then it is either Adam & Eve or Eve & Adam.
Now that you can identify the various combinations of Adam and Eve, so what? My book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second
(pictured) discusses the details of Adam and Eve tops and bottoms. The various combinations behave differently so that if you can identify them correctly, you can use that information to your advantage.
Eve & Eve double bottoms, for example, tend to be star performers. Tests show that the average rise beats the other three combinations of Adam and Eve. Another example: Adam & Adam double tops have the lowest failure rate of the four combinations of Adam and Eve double tops.
When your son or daughter asks about Adam and Eve, you now have a wonderful bedtime story to tell them.
— Thomas Bulkowski